Money management fixed profit

I have a great strategy. In fact, it is more of a money management strategy. Here it is: I call it “fixed profit”.

Here you define the fixed profit you wish to receive from any bet, and calculate the stake amount of money for a particular bet according to the formula:

(your fixed profit) / (odds – 1)

I.e., if you wish to win 10 units every time, then for odds=1.8, you should stake 10/(1.8-1)=12.5 units, and if the odds are 2.5, you should stake 10/(2.5-1)=6.67 units, and so on. Don’t worry if the odds become lower as you receive your desired profit anyway (of course if you win).

I found mathematically that if you use flat betting (with fixed stake of S1 units) and fixed profit (with fixed desired profit of S2 units) together, then for odds lower than S2/S1+1 (in decimal (European) notation) you should use fixed profit, and for odds greater than or equal S2/S1+1 you should use flat betting to maximize your winnings in the long run.

I use this combination and can tell you that it is very good indeed.

Do you combine your bets?

The usual way to bet the NFL is to bet one game at a time and give 11-to-10 odds (risking, for example, $55 to win $50 or $110 to win $100). Usually the bet is on one team against the point spread, or the over-under on the total score of a game. However, bookies also offer other types of bets. What makes these bets alluring is that they seem to pay more. But in reality, these exotic bets usually cost you.

Parlays and Parlay Cards: Parlays are usually bet in two- or three-game groups. On a two-game parlay, a bettor gets 13-to-5 odds if he wins both games. For a small investment, the payoff seems big: on a $50 wager, a payoff of $130. On a straight bet, by contrast, a bettor must risk $143 ($130 plus the $13 vig) to win $130. And if he is going to bet two games at $50 each, he must risk $110 to win only $100. So why not bet parlays?

The problem is that the odds of winning two of two bets is 3-to-1 against. That means the fair payout odds should also be 3-to-1 (or 15-to-5). But they aren’t. Instead, they are only 13-to-5.

A three-team parlay usually pays off at odds of 6-to-1. Here a $50 bettor receives $300 on a $50 investment. Sounds great, doesn’t it?

However, the odds of cashing that three-team parlay ticket are only 1 in 8.

Another form of parlay is the parlay card, or “sheet.” On these, the payoff odds are even worse—often only 5-to-1 for picking three games. That gives the house an edge of 25 percent. Four-teamers usually pay 10-to-1, which gives the house a 31.25 percent edge. A ten-teamer might pay 500-to-1, which sounds good until you realize that the odds against going 10 for 10 are 1,023-to-1, which gives the house over 50 percent edge on that proposition.

Teaser Bets: Every year the number of bettors who wager on teasers grows. Why? The games they remember losing by “just a point or two.”

The most common type of teaser bet is the two-team teaser where a bettor gets six points on each of two games. The price of these extra points is giving 6-to-5 (or 12-to-10) odds on the bet. In all teasers, all games must win for the bettor to get paid. Also, in most teasers, if any game ends in a tie, the teaser is considered no bet. (On a ten-point teaser, a tie makes the teaser a loss.)

In any given season, a game has a little over a two-thirds chance of falling within 5 points of the closing line (the rate was 68.8 percent for 1990–1999). These games would all be wins on six-point individual-game teaser bets regardless of which side you bet. However, you must win two games to win a six-point teaser.

By squaring the 68.8 percent win rate for 1990–1999, we find that you would have won just over 47 percent of six-point two-game teasers. However, laying 6-to-5 odds means you must win 54.545 percent of two-team teasers just to break even. That means the house had an edge of over 12 percent.

On the other teaser bets, the picture is just as bleak.

The best bet in the NFL is betting the point spread or over/under on individual games. Giving 11-to-10 odds is generally the cheapest price you can give.
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Dortmund v Stuttgart: Top tip for you here

Stuttgart hasn’t exactly been on fire in the Bundesliga so far. They looked promising in the season opener against Gladbach. They were very composed and well organized then. However, they’ve not been able to reproduce that effort. Especially up front it has been quite a crisis.

Dortmund are going to play Schalke in the weekend and an important Champions League match away to Anderlecht on October 1st. Given they now have Mkhitaryan injured as well as several other first team players it is likely some rotation of the squad will happen here.

Obviously Dortmund have good squad depth, and Stuttgart isn’t the best of teams at the moment. For my soccer tips I am however inclined to go against the favorite here on the Asian Handicaps. 1.89 for Stuttgart +1.5 looks good, and I am on it at SBO.

How to bet on Volleyball

There are many ways to bet on volleyball with Pinnacle Sports. Bettors have the opportunity to bet on different markets with a variety of different betting formats such as:

1×2 Volleyball Betting:

1×2 markets are the most common market and the simplest way for a player to understand the cost of a bet. 1×2 volleyball bettors are simply betting on which team will win the match.

Volleyball Futures Betting:

Pinnacle Sports offer future markets on volleyball. Take an outright punt on the team before the start of the competition and, if you’re right, see your profits roll in.

Volleyball Total Sets Betting:

Predict whether the total number of sets won by both teams will be over or under the value set by Pinnacle Sports.

Volleyball Sets Handicap Betting:

Betting on the handicap occurs when one team is favoured over their opponents. To counter the perceived bias in ability, bookmakers offer a handicap of sets to level the playing field.

These sets are then added to the game’s final score, and the winner is the team that wins with these additions.

Volleyball First Set Betting:

Punters can bet on the outcome of the first set in a volleyball match.
Volleyball betting competition guide

Pinnacle Sports offer volleyball betting for the most popular domestic and International competitions, including:

Olympic Volleyball Betting:

The Summer Olympics is held every four years and is the pinnacle for national volleyball teams.

FVIB World Championships Betting:

The FIVB volleyball World Championship is an international men and women’s indoor volleyball tournament in which 24 teams compete at the finals to lift the competition that occurs every four years.

World League Volleyball Betting:

The World League is an international men’s volleyball competition. Since 1990 16 teams contest this annual tournament across five continents.

World Cup Volleyball Betting:

Both men and women compete in this international tournament, which acts as a qualifier for the summer Olympics.

Grand Prix Volleyball Betting:

The World Grand Prix is an annual international women’s competition, which is considered the women’s version of the Volleyball World league.

Domestic Volleyball Betting:

Pinnacle Sports offer a number of betting opportunities for domestic volleyball leagues across all continents.

Volleyball betting tips

Despite volleyball gaining less coverage than other sports, this can be turned into an advantage for the punter. By conducting thorough research they can gain an edge over the bookmakers and give themselves a better opportunity to make a profit in volleyball betting.

Handball betting preview Croatia vs Hungary

Hungary played fantastic match in Veszprem a few day ago (20-18 (8-7 half time)), and took two important points against always favorized Croatia. It’s a rare situation in modern handball to see only 38 goals, but Mocsai’s guys have built up fantastic defense, and Croatia couldn’t play its game. Duvnjak scored only once, Lackovic had a troubles with injury, and main sharpshooters failed in this game.

I’ve read a lot complains from croatian sport news, where Goluza said that his team was beaten in Veszprem?! It is a kind of funny story, when we all know Croatia is one of best defensive squads in the world, and not some soft guys.

But today is another day, and another game. Game will took place in Zagreb, and most probably hosts will try to make a hot atmoshpere for this game.

Jakov Gojun is out after first match, so Vukovic will have a main role in Croatia defense. For me one of the biggest handicaps for Goluza’s team is Cupic missing, one of the best right wings today, and only his presence and his fastbreaks are very very important for this team.

But no matter what, at home for me Croatia is always a favorite. I don’t believe Hungary can play like at home court, where crowd were indeed 7th player. I watched this team many times and in away games they have shown many weakness.

Handicap is fair enough -4, but I will buy one goal and my tip for this match is

Croatia -3




Hertha Berlin vs Hannover – Betting preview

Hertha Berlin v Hannover is a fixture that was played as late as the 15.03.2014. Hertha opened well, but could not convert. Hannover always looked dangerous on the counter, and capitalized on the lack of scoring from Ramos (now with Dortmund) who had a bad day at the office that day. Hannover won 3-0 in the end.

Last season Hannover ended one point above Hertha Berlin in the Bundesliga standings and I expect it to be close again. Hertha Berlin has been able to replace the goals of Ramos from several sources. Ronny, Schieber who came from Dortmund, Ben Hatira and Kalou who transferred from Lille have banged in the goals. Schieber and Ben Hatira is likely to not play here. It is probably to early fro Schultz also to play. Ronny should be ready though. I would be more worried about the defense if I were coach Luhukay.

Hannover hasn’t produced much going forward, but they are a decent side. They deserved the win against Frankfurt last match day and they can now boast a 2 game streak as they beat Dortmund before that in the Bundesliga. They defend well! Like Hertha they have no new injuries/suspensions. However Andersen, Albornoz and Pander sit out. I think they should be able to cope with that.

This game is likely to resemble the game in March. Hertha Berlin will have to take the game to Hannover. Hannover will counter! They’ve really shown they can do that this season while at the same time being water tight at the back. Dortmund and Frankfurt are attack minded sides, yet they couldn’t break down Hannover. If they could not, why should Hertha? At the same time against a shaky defense like the one of Hertha I think Hannover is likely to score. Possibly twice!

I have no hesitation taking Hannover +0.25 at the inflated price of 2.21 with Pinnacle.

Forget about 75% success in betting

As NFL betting has grown, so has the tout business. A tout is someone who gets paid to help a bettor make money betting the NFL. Some are legitimate handicappers. An overwhelming majority are not.

The first way to protect yourself from one who is not is to rule out anyone who claims to win 75 or 80 percent against the point spread. Just remember this: Anyone who reasonably expected to win 80 of his next 100 bets could turn $1,000 into $15 billion by proper proportional betting—all in one season!

A realistic long-term win percentage for a skilled handicapper will be in the 55–60 percent range. I know of no service that has done better than about 60 percent over a number of seasons. And those that consistently reach 60 percent are very few.

Another warning sign of a rip-off tout is multiple services within one service. Touts create multiple services so that they can always truthfully claim to have won. For example, a tout may operate an early-week newsletter giving selections on each game along with a weekend phone service giving selections based on the “latest inside information.” Then the tout will switch sides on a game because of “new” information. This way, the tout can always truthfully advertise that his service, meaning one of his services, had the winner of the game.

Other sports services give out selections on 900 numbers with a charge-per-call. They pad the bill by offering just one selection and telling you to call back in ten minutes for another pick—and another charge.

Other services advertise “lock games,” meaning games that can’t lose. How they can sell such games is beyond me. Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing against the spread can be infinitesimally small. In the NFL, a game will often be turned by a single play or penalty call. The best anyone can do in handicapping is come up with a side that has a slightly better than 60 percent chance of covering the spread. This still means that almost four times in ten the game will lose—which makes any talk of a lock complete nonsense.

Some of the more laughable tout ads are those that are printed a month or more ahead of time. These are often found in NFL betting schedules. The ads will claim that this service had winners in games that couldn’t have been played when the ads were written!

In summary, the only touts you should consider using are those who talk about the long haul and realistic win percentages.

The Best NBA Betting Advice on the Planet

I am one of the biggest NBA fans in the world. I have a favorite team, but I see every team as much as possible. That said, I thought it would be really good sports betting. Then I’ll use some of the tactics here in Paris, and I will tell how I cut.

Opting for the home team

All sports fans know that a team plays better at home than on the road. There are rare cases in which a foja team is better than their home record, but rarely, if ever, happens in the NBA. This is my first bet tactic. Bet on the home team.

I began to trust only those who win the game, but do not pay well paris. For example, if you bet $ 100 to the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Oklahoma City Thunder (formerly the Seattle Supersonics, sad I know), you will probably only make $ 20 or more. Paris Such certainly not a good way to make money. With occasional investment, not to make money, in fact, is likely to lose money. It happened to me. I like to make out 3 or 4 paris instead of losing, and I bet, lost more money to win over three paris gave me.

Betting Underdog

That’s when I started losing in Paris the point spread. In the example above, the Lakers probably favored by more than 10 points, so I’ll bet the Thunder lose by less than 10 points. It pays much better than Paris, who would win the match. If you bet $ 100 on the thunder and lost by less than 10 points would earn about $ 90 or more. I thought it was going to work hard, but again, I lost money.

A look at the teams that have played two nights in a row

Then I tried Paris against teams that played two nights in a row. I thought it would be a success because the teams will play two nights in a row would be tired and probably would not play as well as they are capable of playing. Again, I lost money.

In short, Paris is in NBA games almost impossible. I lost money and not really know what they do differently. I would bet the opposite of what I said, but my inclination is difficult to make again and again. Who sets the score lines Vegas and know what they are doing an excellent job. My experience is not a big sports fan can make money betting on sports should be a lesson to you all. The fact that they know the players, teams, coaches, injury reports and game site, just know that also knows Vegas.

2013 NBA Championship Futures Odds

At last, the long wait is just about over, as the NBA’s regular season tips off Oct. 28 with three games on the schedule.

For those of you who haven’t had your fantasy draft — and even the many of you who have — here is a rundown of all the latest happenings around the league that you need to know.

We also zero in on the big fantasy targets on all 30 teams — factoring in average draft position as of Oct. 22, breakout potential and injury history — to come up with our safest bets, biggest risks and best values for this season.

The Heat won their first NBA title with the Big 3 last season and while they have the best odds to win it again the new-look Lakers will be in the mix as well as the young Thunder, who lost in the finals last season. Let’s take a look at some of the teams that have good odds to win the title this season.

The Heat (3.25) won it all last season and it is no shock they will still be led by the Big 3 of James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh they may be a better team then they were last season. Yeah, the Heat do not have legit big man or point guard, but they picked up a couple of solid free agents in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Both of these guys can knock down the long ball, which will space the floor for LeBron and company and each took less money to come to South Beach. Udonis Haslem does the dirty work and is key play this season. He missed a lot of time this season and the Heat need to stay healthy, as they are not a deep squad.

The Lakers (4.33) had a busy off-season gearing up for another title run by trading for Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. Howard is the newest member of a long list of L.A. great big men and Nash gives Kobe Bryant a solid PG, which they have not had in many years. Pau Gasol stayed with the team and they made a solid off-season move picking up Antwawn Jamison. He had Jodie Meeks will be solid bench players and they need to play well since the Lakers do not have a lot of depth. The Lakers are not a young team and they need to impress Howard this season, who is in the last year of his current contract.

The Thunder (5.50) won the West last season and have a great young trio in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. Serge Ibaka is a great defender and Kendrick Perkins is the muscle in the middle. Perry Jones III fell to them with the 28th pick in the draft and he may be a steal. The Thunder will not look much different than last season, but they will now be facing a tougher Lakers’ team in the West.

After the Heat, Lakers, and Thunder oddsmakers have all the other teams as long shots to win the title.

The Bulls (17.00) have a solid core of players with Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah. The big question for the Bulls is when will Rose come back. He tore his ACL in the playoffs last season and he needs to be on the floor and playing at a high level for the Bulls to have any chance to come out of the East.

Do the Spurs (21.00) have one more title run in them? Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are no spring chickens any longer, but they did have a great year last season. Stephen Jackson was solid mid-season pick up last year and Kawhi Leonard had a solid rookie campaign, but the Spurs will only go as far as their big 3 takes them.

The Clippers (29.00) made the playoffs last season and Chris Paul and Blake Griffin will be joined by solid pickup Lamar Odom, who may get back to being a great 6th man after last season’s disaster in Dallas. They also picked up Grant Hill and Jamal Crawford, but they are not a good team on D and that will hurt facing the Lakers and the Thunder, who they will likely have to get by to make the finals.

Like the Spurs do the Celtics (29.00) have another title run in them? They lost one of their Big 3 with Ray Allen bolting for Miami, but Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will have a lot of new talent with the likes of Jason Terry and rookies Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger. Jeff Green will also be back after missing last season with a heart condition.

The Mavs’s (34.00) window may have closed and while Dirk Nowitzki is still a star the team lost super 6th man Jason Terry. The Mavs will have a new look with the additions of O.J. Mayo, Chris Kaman, Darren Collison and Elton Brand. Jason Kidd bolted for New York and the new guys will have to step up and Dirk will have to have a MVP campaign for Dallas to go all the way.

Betting on underdogs in cup

I want to tell you about a betting strategy I use:

I use this system ONLY for CUP matches.

So here it goes: I choose a particluar Cup on which I focus all my attention. Last week I decided to choose the French Cup. I take 5 matches in which teams from the first league that don’t have any interest in winning the cup really (and so will field their younger players) play against a lower team from the second or third division.

I pick out the best 5 games and then place my bet on the underdogs that probably have odds around 7.0 or even higher.

I bet £10 on each game and almost every time I get at least one winner if not more from those 5 games and so I get a profit of at least over £20 every cup leg.

This system is great, I hope you’ll like it.